Opening day is creeping closer and closer and the COVID-19 version of the MLB season is right around the corner.
Fans all over the country are itching for baseball to be back and now that the drama of the MLB and MLBPA negotiations are in the past, we can get back on the diamond. Even so, this season will look very different from the past.
I got an e-mail earlier this week from the Houston Astros asking if I wanted to donate $100 for a cardboard cutout of myself to be put in the stands during games, due to the league playing without fans in attendance. While I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t tempted, it was a reminder of just how weird this season is going to be.
The season is going to feel like a late-September division race the entire time as it is essentially a 60-game sprint to the finish line. While it is going to be pretty much up for grabs, I wanted to take a look at the Houston Astros and break down how the team will potentially look in 2020.
Starting Rotation
Despite MLB.com ranking the Astros as the ninth best rotation and putting the Texas Strangers, I mean Rangers, at seven, I am confident the Astros rotation can compete with the best of them.
Justin Verlander leads the way for the Astros yet again. Heading into his fourth season in the Orange and blue, Verlander looks as tough as ever. In a simulated scrimmage last week, he made the Astros hitters look silly in a time where the hitters are typically ahead of the pitching. Kyle Tucker looked rough trying to dial in the future hall of famer and Verlander will look to do that to the rest of the league as well.
Zach Grienke is also back and while he does not have the velocity he once did, he is still an ace-tier pitcher. Despite being up-and-down in the playoffs in 2019, Grienke was solid in Game 7 of the world series and if not for a bad call on a change-up, may have been the Astros’ game seven hero.
Lance McCullers is back following a year off recovering from Tommy John surgery and he has looked solid. His knuckle-curve is still the nastiest pitch in the league and he continues to carries himself with that same swagger he did back in 2017. You know what I mean, New York?
He may benefit from the shortened season as he was likely going to be on an innings limit in 2020. Look for a big year from McCullers.
The back end of the rotation is the question for the Astros.
Jose Urquidy was solid in the postseason but has yet to report to camp for undisclosed reasons. Pitching coach Brent Strom has been high on lefty Framber Valdez, a guy who has always had electric stuff, but struggles to control it at times. Valdez will likely take one of these two spots to start the season.
The Astros believe 27-year old Josh James can be stretched out as a starter and love his stuff, but he is an unproven arm. He would probably serve better in the bullpen. I am a big fan of Brad Peacock and the long-time Astro is always a reliable option.
Other options for the fifth starter include top prospect Forrest Whitley, Brandon Bielak and Austin Pruitt.
Bullpen
If there is an area to be concerned as an Astros fan, it is in the ‘pen. The loss of Will Harris and Joe Smith’s decision to sit out the 2020 season hurts a bullpen that had its’ issues in 2020.
Peacock is one of the better long relief arms in baseball when he’s not in the rotation and Ryan Pressly is back to set things up for closer Roberto Osuna, but the rest of the staff is a question mark.
Youngster Bryan Abreu can be nasty and showed flashes of dominance in 2019. He will be looking to establish himself as a major leaguer.
Chris “Dragon” Devenski is still looking to return to his 2016 dominant form, but his changeup is still one of the better ones in baseball.
Pruitt has one of the best spin rates in baseball, something pitching coach Brent Strom loves working with. He will be an interesting project to follow in 2020.
Lineup
The Astros lineup will look much like it did in 2019, with the exception of slugger Yordan Alvarez, who like Urquidy, has yet to report to camp for undisclosed reasons. He will likely miss the first week or two of the season.
Alex Bregman and Jose ALtuve will once again anchor the offensive attack. I was expecting a big year from shortstop Carlos Correa even before the pandemic struck, so look for big things from the tall infielder. Yuli Gurriel put up big numbers in 2019 and will be looking to do that again in his contract year. La Pina has already said he wants to stay in Houston and he will try to become invaluable in 2020.
There are several younger players that will look to solidify their spot in the big leagues in 2020. Abraham Toro came up in 2019 and showed flashes of being a solid utility player in the mold of Marwin Gonzalez. Myles Straw is an exciting player that combines elite speed with the ability to put the ball in play, but he will have to compete with top prospect Kyle Tucker for the Astros fourth outfield spot. Tucker has swung the bat well this spring and has the look of a player ready to breakout.
Prediction
Overall, the Astros are still one of the best teams in baseball and are in a prime position to push deep into the postseason once again. Several things need to go their way in 2020, but if they do, they could add another trophy to the trophy case in 2020.
If Alvarez and Urquidy can get back and contribute, McCullers returns to his peak form and the bullpen holds up, there are few teams that will stop the Astros in 2020.
Best case scenario: Houston stays healthy, Alvarez returns and rakes and Astros secure their second World Series title in four years.
Worst case scenario: COVID cases and injuries lead to a slow start and Astros miss playoffs in shortened season